Day-to-Day Homicides in the nation Fall Thirty-Seven Percent During the Sheinbaum Administration, According to Government Statistics

The mean figure of everyday homicides per month in the country has decreased by thirty-seven percent since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, per new government statistics. However, security analysts have warned that homicide data might not signal better countrywide security.

Significant Reduction in Daily Figures

Officials reported an mean of almost 55 killings a day in November versus roughly 87 when the President took the presidential office in the previous September. This information was delivered by the director of the country’s federal public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular news conference on Tuesday.

“The result in homicides that we have seen during these past months is remarkably important,” Claudia Sheinbaum remarked, adding that in November the least figure of murders were recorded for any single November in the last 10 years.

Recent Context and Government Plan

Intense cartel rivalries, combined with the government’s highly militarised campaigns to take on the drug gangs, have led to Mexico’s murder numbers soar in recent times. The rate reached a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, according to the country’s national statistics agency.

That meant Mexico a murder figure over 4x greater than that of the United States. From that point, killings have been on the decline, falling to 33,550 the previous year. Claudia Sheinbaum has linked her national security strategy for an ostensibly sharper drop in killings in the current year.

At a news briefing in the summer, the President said: “We have a strategy, we have monitoring of the plan, and we have specific monitoring municipality by municipality in some cases. The strategy functions. And we have to persist at it each day.”

The key pillars of the President's security strategy include:

• Bolstering Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Enhancing intelligence and investigative work.
• Greater cooperation between government authorities.

Analyst Skepticism and Data Limitations

However, public safety analysts urged caution that relying on murder statistics to assess the situation of peace was misleading. This is notably true considering the increase in different criminal activities such as abductions.

“That would be excellent news if this was a decrease, but I think we shouldn't just focus on the homicide data and think: ‘Well then, excellent,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican cartels. “I would be guardedly positive.”

As reported by the policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings in total declined by more than 20% in the first 10 months of this year compared with the identical timeframe last year. Yet, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in some states have surged by up to 200%.

“Data on murders is not reliable for gauging the reality of public insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and prosecutors who lack the ability or the will to accurately recognize and classify corpses. Second, organized [criminals] … have the capability to conceal violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas noted that relying on monthly averages of daily homicides was similarly an issue because it may mask days when there were especially high numbers of killings.

“Employing the daily average makes surges of violent crime invisible,” he concluded.

Arrests and Seizures as Metrics of Progress

Where the administration can cite the effectiveness of its security plan is on arrests and seizures. Nearly 40,000 people were arrested between last October and this past November for major offenses, per government figures. Over 20,000 weapons were confiscated and 311 tonnes of narcotics confiscated.

“Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of inaction, because actually she is doing a lot with these thousands of arrests, thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical weakening of criminal groups. It’s extremely in political terms profitable,” said Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Societal Frustration

But despite these measures, Mexico remains grappling with extreme bloodshed, with several regions in the throes of cartel-fueled bloodshed. In the previous month there was a prominent killing of a popular local official in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders killed in the past year.

A short time later, thousands of young people protested in the capital and throughout the nation to show their frustration at graft and narco-violence.

“The government shares [data] in a manner to build a narrative of improvement. From a political standpoint it’s highly effective, from a social perspective it’s extremely debatable,” the analyst said.