From Superpower to Rogue State: The Implications of the US Seizure of Venezuela's Maduro

Amid the widespread uncertainty following the United States attacks on Venezuela, the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “run” the country and “seize control of the oil”, a single fact remains evident – they set a profoundly disturbing precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States possesses a dark record of interference, invasion and occupation in Latin America, but the recent overnight operation witnessed its initial significant armed assault on the soil of a South American nation. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” the President stated.

The choice to militarily strike another independent nation and abduct its leader – only a few days after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – carries even broader implications. We all have reason to be worried.

A Nation Left in Limbo

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has remarked that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and rejected prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other elements of the headless administration are far more intransigent.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who came to office vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He does not see the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is converting it into a rogue state.

He holds the view that the United States' strength enables it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: witness the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He promises that Venezuelan oil means this latest episode “won’t cost us a penny”.

A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy

George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came without UN resolutions of any kind or congressional approval; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to shatter them.

Disregard the implication this carries to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will surely embolden more reckless actions.

The Thin Pretext and True Motives

Few believe the justification that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is driven by the lure of oil as well as a desire to project strength, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the desire for glory as domestic popularity wanes.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode highlights the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could yet press him to turn attention back home – but escalating insurance prices, economic unhappiness and distracting files increase his appetite for distraction.

Barely 12 months into his time in office. World leaders may come to rue the day if they stay silent now, given what – and who – could be next.